INTELLIGENCE WORK: Characteristics, elements and basic principles.OVERCOMING THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE: ADVANCED MODELS.STATE ACTORS: Economic Warfare Concept. Case study.Monitoring of political instability. Example and model.NON-STATE ACTORS. Hybrid threat. Case study.Bias in strategic assumptions: ERRORS AND BIASES IN CONFLICTS.Three analysis models.Case Study: Libya. Understandingtheintentions andcapabilitiesofhostilegroups andotheractorsischallenging,especiallywhentheiractivity and sponsorsremainhidden.Furthermore,transnationalthreats poseevengreatercomplexity,insofar astheyinvolveactorsthat canadapt morequicklythanthosethat trytocontainthem.Globalization hasincreasedthediversityofoutcomeswhencomplexsystemssuch asfinancialflowsor internetconnectivitybringhostileactorsfrom remoteenvironmentsclosertogether.

Understandingtheintentions and capabilitiesofhostilegroups and otheractorsischallenging, especiallywhentheiractivity and sponsors remainhidden. Furthermore, transnationalthreats pose evengreatercomplexity, insofar as theyinvolveactorsthat can adapt more quicklythanthosethat try tocontainthem. Globalization has increasedthediversityofoutcomeswhencomplexsystemssuch as financialflowsor internet connectivitybringhostileactorsfrom remote environmentsclosertogether.